We all have a sense that we know when a game is rigged.
In fact, there’s a saying that if you have the chance of winning $20 and it’s rigged, you should go ahead and take it.
If that seems to be a pretty obvious statement, it should be.
The problem is that there’s little to no evidence that the odds are rigged against you.
In most of the world, we have no idea how many people are winning millions in poker at a time, how much money they’re making, or how much they’re spending on poker at any given time.
This lack of information leads to many people playing the game at odds with their own self-interest.
And when that happens, we’re often left feeling a bit lost, and even a bit stupid.
But the evidence is quite clear that there is no rigged system.
In a recent article in the Journal of Financial Markets, researchers from the University of British Columbia and the University at Albany in New York conducted a meta-analysis to see if the gambles fallacy was a real thing.
They did just that.
In the article, the authors examined studies on poker tables, and found that most people tend to make a “good deal” when they play.
And they found that this was a pretty good predictor of the success of a poker table in terms of the odds of winning.
“When we asked people to describe the odds they’d win, we found that they tended to put the number between 1.5 and 2.5 in the range of ‘good’ to ‘excellent’,” the researchers wrote.
“So, if they see the odds as close to 2.0, they might be thinking that it’s ‘exactly’ the right deal.”
In other words, the odds tend to be close to fair when they are.
In this way, it’s not a surprise that the gambers fallacy exists.
And it’s a problem for the people who think it exists, too.
In order to detect the gambits fallacy, the researchers turned to a dataset that they used to analyze the odds at several different poker tables.
They found that people who believe the odds were rigged tended to do better when playing at a table that was a little bit higher than their own.
They also saw more variance in the odds when playing in a table in which the poker table was slightly smaller than their self-reported odds.
In other word, if the table was close to the self-identified odds, people tended to win more, while playing a table with a much smaller chance of success would be less successful.
This finding, of course, is an obvious red flag.
“The data suggests that we should be very cautious about making generalizations from the results of the meta-analytic analyses of tables,” the researchers concluded.
“In fact, it is a warning for all future attempts to make generalizations about the chances of success for the various outcomes of poker games.”
For people who want to make it through to the next round, the real risk is that their bettor will play with a small table and get an extremely good return, but it’s also possible that their best poker odds are in the neighborhood of 1.0.
The researchers said that they plan to continue to monitor the results in future studies, and they hope to provide some insights into how to avoid the gamblestakes fallacy.
“These studies provide some evidence that we can be a bit more skeptical of the gambiestatestimates,” they wrote.
But this is just the beginning of the research.
The next step in the research is to get the data into a more rigorous, computer-based way.
“We have to develop tools to analyse the data,” the authors wrote.
There are a lot of questions that remain to be answered.
What are the odds for winning a million dollars in a poker tournament?
Are the odds rigged against people who don’t want to lose millions of dollars?
What are some other ways that people might make money playing poker?
It’s easy to imagine that some people will find these questions confusing, and the next step is to figure out what the best way to handle the gamblers fallacy is.
“I’m really hopeful that these kinds of studies will be part of the mainstream research agenda for the foreseeable future,” the co-authors concluded.